Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Nov 2, 2026 at 23:08 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.3 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Western Atlantic 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 70%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022305
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening
frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a
day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western
Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the
weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or
northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022308
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as
it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Nov 2, 2026 at 23:08 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤70%
Nov 2, 2026 at 17:07 UTC
2 areas · ≤70%
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Oct 31, 2026 at 23:18 UTC
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Oct 31, 2026 at 22:54 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 31, 2026 at 17:17 UTC
1 area · ≤40%