Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 25, 2026 at 11:34 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Vance — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 29 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 34.2 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Western Central Pacific (Eastern Pacific): 30% → 70%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. Western Central Pacific 48h 70% 7-day 70%
1. Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure just crossing the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was also becoming better defined. If these current trends continue, the system is likely to become a tropical depression, possibly as soon as later today. The system is moving towards the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph and will slowly approach the Johnston Atoll later this week. By the middle of the week, however, strong upper-l
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251134
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251133
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Vance, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with an area of low pressure just crossing the International Date
Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Earlier
satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was also becoming
better defined. If these current trends continue, the system is
likely to become a tropical depression, possibly as soon as later
today. The system is moving towards the east-northeast at 10 to 15
mph and will slowly approach the Johnston Atoll later this week. By
the middle of the week, however, strong upper-level winds should
limit additional development of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 25, 2026 at 11:34 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 25, 2026 at 05:28 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 24, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 24, 2026 at 17:29 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 24, 2026 at 11:25 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 24, 2026 at 05:25 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 23, 2026 at 23:01 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 23, 2026 at 17:14 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 23, 2026 at 11:16 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 23, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 23:15 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 17:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%