Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 20% development odds
Issued Oct 23, 2026 at 11:16 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Vance — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 29 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.8 by this date.
- Odds lowered for 1. Western Central Pacific (Eastern Pacific): 30% → 20%
- No longer tracked: 1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Atlantic)
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. Western Central Pacific 48h 0% 7-day 20%
1. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231114
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231116
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Vance, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll late this
weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development thereafter while the system moves generally
eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 23, 2026 at 11:16 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 23, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 23:15 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 17:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 11:36 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 05:11 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 21, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC
3 areas · ≤70%
Oct 21, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤40%
Oct 21, 2026 at 11:44 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 20, 2026 at 23:33 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%