Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 30% development odds
Issued Oct 22, 2026 at 23:15 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Tropical Storm Josephine — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 29 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.6 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 10%
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible through Friday while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Western Central Pacific 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222315
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system
is possible through Friday while it moves slowly
north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222315
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll
late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 22, 2026 at 23:15 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 17:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 11:36 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 22, 2026 at 05:11 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 21, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤30%
Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC
3 areas · ≤70%
Oct 21, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤40%
Oct 21, 2026 at 11:44 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 20, 2026 at 23:33 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 20, 2026 at 11:39 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%