Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 28, 2026 at 11:16 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 22 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.9 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) (Atlantic): 60% → 80%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) 48h 70% 7-day 80%
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): An area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda is moving quickly eastward. Recent microwave imagery suggests the shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, though it is unclear if the system has developed a well-defined circulation given its fast forward motion. While environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable, this system is now likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the next day or two as it turns east-southeastward and slows down over the central Subtropical A
Eastern Pacific
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) 48h 70% 7-day 90%
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
047
ABNT20 KNHC 281116
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the southwest of the Azores.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of
Bermuda is moving quickly eastward. Recent microwave imagery
suggests the shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show
signs of organization, though it is unclear if the system has
developed a well-defined circulation given its fast forward motion.
While environmental conditions are currently only marginally
favorable, this system is now likely to become a tropical depression
or storm over the next day or two as it turns east-southeastward and
slows down over the central Subtropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280531
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located about 155 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico,
on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located a few
hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so.
The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east
of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rachel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rachel are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Sep 28, 2026 at 11:16 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 27, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 27, 2026 at 05:27 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 23:14 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 17:18 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%