Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 22 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.9 by this date.

Odds raised for 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) 48h 50% 7-day 60%

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda is moving quickly east-northeastward. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and it could become a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it turns eastward to east-southeastward and slows down over the central Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development later this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) 48h 70% 7-day 90%

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 244 ABNT20 KNHC 280530 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the southwest of the Azores. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda is moving quickly east-northeastward. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and it could become a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it turns eastward to east-southeastward and slows down over the central Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Evans/Mahoney

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 280531 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located about 155 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located a few hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rachel are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rachel are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

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