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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (2)

Eastern Pacific 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Pacific 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 70%

2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 400 ABNT20 KNHC 261157 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located just east-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Katz

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 780 ABPZ20 KNHC 261722 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located south of the Big Island of Hawaii. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 17:18 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 11:32 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 05:37 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 24, 2026 at 23:06 UTC 3 areas · ≤80% Sep 24, 2026 at 19:06 UTC 3 areas · ≤80% Sep 24, 2026 at 11:32 UTC 3 areas · ≤80% Sep 24, 2026 at 05:20 UTC 3 areas · ≤80% Sep 23, 2026 at 23:26 UTC 3 areas · ≤80%