Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) — 90% 7-day odds
- Odds raised for 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Eastern Pacific): 60% → 70%
- No longer tracked: 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E) (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90): An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 70%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261141
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located just east-northeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the
west-southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Katz
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo,
located south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90):
An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues
to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity
increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or
two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or
northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day
or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is
expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 17:18 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 11:32 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 05:37 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 23:06 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 19:06 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 11:32 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 23, 2026 at 23:26 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 23, 2026 at 17:32 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%