Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 26, 2026 at 23:14 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic — 20% 7-day odds
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 20%
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda is currently producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become favorable for gradual development of this system as it moves northward this weekend and then turns eastward by the early to middle portion of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 70%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 262314
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores
and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo,
located north of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the southeast of Bermuda is currently producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could become favorable for gradual development of this system as it
moves northward this weekend and then turns eastward by the early to
middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
780
ABPZ20 KNHC 261722
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an
area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional
development of the system is anticipated due to conducive
environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to
form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue
moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day
or two about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is
should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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