Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E) 48h 60% 7-day 90%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E): An area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 60%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260523
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located just east-northeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the
west-southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Berg
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260529
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo,
located about 150 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90):
An area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the next day
or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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