Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.9 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E) — 90% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E) 48h 60% 7-day 90%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E): An area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 20% 7-day 60%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252341
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the
Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252341
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
about 150 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E):
An area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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