Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 22, 2026 at 17:25 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.1 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa tomorrow. Although upper-level winds are not very conducive, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 70% 7-day 90%
1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, have changed little in organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Heavy rains associated with this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting
Eastern Pacific
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 60%
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Fay, located several hundred miles
southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa
tomorrow. Although upper-level winds are not very conducive, some
slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally
northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as
gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221725
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California, and on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, have changed little in organization over the
past several hours. Environmental conditions are still expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward. Heavy rains associated with
this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian
Islands starting on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend, and
interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This
motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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