Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 22, 2026 at 11:37 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 22, 2026 at 11:37 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.1 by this date.

Odds raised for 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Eastern Pacific): 50% → 60%

Development areas (3)

Atlantic 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 0% 7-day 30%

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa tomorrow. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 70% 7-day 90%

1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, continue to produce showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70

Eastern Pacific 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 60%

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 221137 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa tomorrow. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 439 ABPZ20 KNHC 220518 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, continue to produce showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

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