Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 22, 2026 at 23:28 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 22, 2026 at 23:28 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.1 by this date.

Odds raised for 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Atlantic): 30% → 40%

Development areas (3)

Atlantic 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 40%

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa later tonight or tomorrow. Although upper-level winds are not very conducive for development, a tropical depression could form while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 70% 7-day 90%

1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, have changed little in organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Heavy rains associated with this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting

Eastern Pacific 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 60%

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 222323 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa later tonight or tomorrow. Although upper-level winds are not very conducive for development, a tropical depression could form while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Adams

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 222328 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Major Hurricane Polo, located less than 200 miles offshore of southern Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located roughly 430 miles south-southeast of South Point, Hawaii, are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or so, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Heavy rains associated with this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting on Wednesday and continuing through Saturday, possibly resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides for portions of the Big Island and Maui. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances