Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 22, 2026 at 05:18 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.1 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) — 90% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off western Africa by Wednesday. Environmental conditions may become marginally conducive for slow development while it moves generally north-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands later this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 60% 7-day 90%
1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, continue to produce showers and thunderstorms that are starting to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Format
Eastern Pacific
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 50%
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
695
ABNT20 KNHC 212335
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off western Africa by Wednesday.
Environmental conditions may become marginally conducive for slow
development while it moves generally north-northwestward near the
Cabo Verde Islands later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
439
ABPZ20 KNHC 220518
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California, and on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several
hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, continue to produce
showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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