Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 5, 2026 at 05:08 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (Atlantic): 40% → 50%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 10% 7-day 50%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 40% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 050508
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of
Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form by the second half of this week while it initially
drifts eastward before turning northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050507
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of
the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 5, 2026 at 05:08 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 11:30 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 3, 2026 at 23:29 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%