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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.2 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 0% 7-day 40%

1. Southwestern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 042327 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042326 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Hurricane Nolo, which has crossed the International Date Line while located well to the west-northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, and continues to issue advisories on Hurricane Rachel, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 11:30 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 3, 2026 at 23:29 UTC 1 area · ≤80% Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC 1 area · ≤80% Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC 1 area · ≤80% Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤80%