Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.2 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (Atlantic): 30% → 40%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 0% 7-day 40%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 042327
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the
week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow
development is possible and a tropical depression could form late
this week while the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042326
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Nolo, which has crossed the International Date Line while
located well to the west-northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and continues to issue advisories on Hurricane Rachel,
located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located just to the south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,
just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
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