Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 5, 2026 at 11:38 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (Atlantic): 50% → 70%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 30% 7-day 70%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 50% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
015
ABNT20 KNHC 051138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This
system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
694
ABPZ20 KNHC 051133
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to
latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern
to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 5, 2026 at 11:38 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 5, 2026 at 05:08 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 11:30 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 3, 2026 at 23:29 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%