Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.2 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it drifts northward over the southwestern Gulf. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of
this system is possible while it drifts northward over the
southwestern Gulf.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041726
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located well to the west-northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next
day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to
latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern
to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
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Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
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2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%