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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds

Issued Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.6 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay) 48h 10% 7-day 10%

1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%

1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 021128 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 528 ABPZ20 KNHC 021125 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Lihue, Hawaii, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 1, 2026 at 23:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 1, 2026 at 17:38 UTC 1 area · ≤70% Oct 1, 2026 at 11:40 UTC 1 area · ≤70% Oct 1, 2026 at 05:03 UTC 1 area · ≤70% Sep 30, 2026 at 23:09 UTC 1 area · ≤60% Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC 1 area · ≤40% Sep 30, 2026 at 11:41 UTC 1 area · ≤40% Sep 30, 2026 at 05:47 UTC 1 area · ≤20% Sep 29, 2026 at 23:05 UTC 1 area · ≤20% Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC 1 area · ≤90%