Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.6 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay) 48h 10% 7-day 10%
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form in a few days south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
306
ABNT20 KNHC 020516
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former
Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development
while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation
chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012305
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and
on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles south of Baja
California Sur. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last
advisory on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located well
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form in a few days south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely form by the middle of next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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