Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.6 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay) 48h 10% 7-day 10%
1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay) located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized during the past several hours. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021720
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay) located several hundred
miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized during the
past several hours. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves
north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any
formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021721
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of
the main Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a
couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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