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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 23 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.3 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (1)

Eastern Pacific 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): Showers and thunderstorms are limited and disorganized in association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Although the system has lost some organization today, it is still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 290206 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Hanna, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 282334 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located near Baja California Sur, on Hurricane Nolo, located several hundred miles southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): Showers and thunderstorms are limited and disorganized in association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Although the system has lost some organization today, it is still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 29, 2026 at 11:26 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 05:20 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC — viewing 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 23:34 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 17:36 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 11:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 27, 2026 at 23:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 27, 2026 at 05:27 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 23:14 UTC 3 areas · ≤90%