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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds

Issued Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 22 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) 48h 50% 7-day 60%

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion of this week as the system

Eastern Pacific 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 50% 7-day 80%

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 271725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion of this week as the system initially moves northward before turning eastward tomorrow over the central Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 613 ABPZ20 KNHC 271726 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Odalys, located well west of the southern tip of Baja California, on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the Acapulco, Mexico. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 27, 2026 at 05:27 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 23:14 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 17:18 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 11:32 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 25, 2026 at 05:37 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 24, 2026 at 23:06 UTC 3 areas · ≤80%