Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 22 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) — 60% 7-day odds
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands — 80% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Atlantic)
- No longer tracked: 1. Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) (Eastern Pacific)
- No longer tracked: 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91) 48h 50% 7-day 60%
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion of this week as the system
Eastern Pacific
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 50% 7-day 80%
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the
system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift,
though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional
development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows
down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion
of this week as the system initially moves northward before turning
eastward tomorrow over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
613
ABPZ20 KNHC 271726
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Odalys, located well west of the southern
tip of Baja California, on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest of
the Acapulco, Mexico.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and
thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next several days. The system should move
generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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