Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 22 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 28.5 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 20%
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda is currently producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become favorable for gradual development of this system as it moves northward this weekend and then turns eastward by the early to middle portion of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better defined. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see H
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 40% 7-day 70%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271125
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the early to mid portion of this week as it initially
moves northward before turning eastward early this week over the
central Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270527
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on Hurricane
Odalys, located well west of the southern tip of Baja California,
and on Hurricane Nolo, located south-southwest of the Big Island of
Hawaii.
Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better defined. Additional
development of the system is anticipated due to conducive
environmental conditions, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue
moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. For additional
information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas forecast issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should
move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC — viewing
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 27, 2026 at 05:27 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 23:14 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 17:22 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 11:46 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 26, 2026 at 05:29 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 23:41 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 17:18 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 11:32 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Sep 25, 2026 at 05:37 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 23:06 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%
Sep 24, 2026 at 19:06 UTC
3 areas · ≤80%