Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Sep 24, 2026 at 19:06 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.7 by this date.
- Odds raised for 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Eastern Pacific): 20% → 30%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) 48h 70% 7-day 70%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over t
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 0% 7-day 30%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241906
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of
heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the
east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western
portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest
portions of Mauritania.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241755
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located about 100 miles offshore of southwestern Mexico, on
Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Nolo, located a few
hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early middle portion of
next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward,
remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Brown
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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