Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Sep 24, 2026 at 11:32 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.7 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) (Atlantic): 60% → 70%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) 48h 70% 7-day 70%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over t
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 0% 7-day 20%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of
heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
580
ABPZ20 KNHC 240535
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located almost 100 miles offshore of southwestern Mexico, on
Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Nolo, located a few hundred
miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as
it moves generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo are issued under
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header TCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo are issued
under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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