Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 20, 2026 at 11:45 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 19 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26.1 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) — 90% 7-day odds
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) — 60% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) (Eastern Pacific)
- No longer tracked: 2. Western East Pacific (EP98) (Eastern Pacific)
- No longer tracked: 3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have continued to become better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 0% 7-day 60%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance thr
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles
southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
595
ABPZ20 KNHC 201145
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have
continued to become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so as
the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, including gale warnings, see the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion
of this week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a
tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.