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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 20, 2026 at 11:45 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 20, 2026 at 11:45 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 19 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26.1 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Eastern Pacific 1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have continued to become better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings

Eastern Pacific 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 0% 7-day 60%

2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance thr

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 201145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 595 ABPZ20 KNHC 201145 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have continued to become better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 21, 2026 at 11:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤70% Sep 21, 2026 at 05:27 UTC 2 areas · ≤70% Sep 20, 2026 at 23:15 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 20, 2026 at 17:41 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 20, 2026 at 11:45 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 20, 2026 at 05:19 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 19, 2026 at 23:39 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 19, 2026 at 17:37 UTC 3 areas · ≤90%