Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 20, 2026 at 17:41 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 19 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26.1 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and an increase in the organization of the system could result in it becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so. The system is expected to move eastward off the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, but could begin moving toward the coast by late Tuesday. Interests along the southwester
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 0% 7-day 60%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week as the system moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation ch
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201739
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
612
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have
changed little in organization since earlier today. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and an
increase in the organization of the system could result in it
becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so.
The system is expected to move eastward off the coast of southern
Mexico on Monday, but could begin moving toward the coast by late
Tuesday. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, including gale warnings, see the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion
of this week as the system moves westward to west-southwestward, and
a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.