Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 20, 2026 at 05:19 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 18 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26.1 by this date.
- Odds raised for 2. Western East Pacific (EP98) (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%
Development areas (3)
Eastern Pacific
1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings, please see the Hi
Eastern Pacific
2. Western East Pacific (EP98) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
2. Western East Pacific (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or so as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 0% 7-day 60%
3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to latter part of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
138
ABNT20 KNHC 200519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192339
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves
generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including
gale warnings, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula are becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the
next day or so as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the western East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands,
remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system next week as it moves westward to
west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the
south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to latter
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.