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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 19, 2026 at 23:39 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 19, 2026 at 23:39 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 18 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (3)

Eastern Pacific 1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 80% 7-day 90%

1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Persistent but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a broad area of low pressure well south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of days as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation

Eastern Pacific 2. Western East Pacific (EP98) 48h 80% 7-day 80%

2. Western East Pacific (EP98): A broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next several days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Pacific 3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 10% 7-day 60%

3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, remain persistent, but disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands towards the middle to latter portion of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...med

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 577 ABNT20 KNHC 192338 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 192339 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Western East Pacific (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or so as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Gibbs

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 19, 2026 at 23:39 UTC — viewing 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 19, 2026 at 17:37 UTC 3 areas · ≤90%