Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 19, 2026 at 17:37 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 18 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) — 90% 7-day odds
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 2. Western East Pacific (EP98) — 80% 7-day odds
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) — 60% 7-day odds
Development areas (3)
Eastern Pacific 1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99) 48h 80% 7-day 90%
1. South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Persistent but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a broad area of low pressure well south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of days as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation
Eastern Pacific 2. Western East Pacific (EP98) 48h 80% 7-day 80%
2. Western East Pacific (EP98): A broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next several days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern Pacific 3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 10% 7-day 60%
3. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, remain persistent, but disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands towards the middle to latter portion of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...med
Official NHC text — Atlantic
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.