Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 6, 2026 at 11:33 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 6, 2026 at 11:33 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.9 by this date.

Odds raised for 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) (Atlantic): 80% → 90%
New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92) — 90% 7-day odds
New area in the Eastern Pacific: 2. South of Guatemala — 20% 7-day odds
No longer tracked: 1. South of Southern Mexico (92E) (Eastern Pacific)

Development areas (3)

Atlantic 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. 1. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the en

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92): Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this syste

Eastern Pacific 2. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 20%

2. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 061131 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 061133 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico (EP92): Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

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