Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.9 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) 48h 80% 7-day 80%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 4
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (92E) 48h 70% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060507
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next
couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward
through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It
is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf
Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052323
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located just under 500 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico (92E):
A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests
along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
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2 areas · ≤90%
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1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC
1 area · ≤80%