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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.9 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) 48h 80% 7-day 80%

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 4

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (92E) 48h 70% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 060507 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Gibbs

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 052323 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel, located just under 500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Gibbs

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 23:23 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 17:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 11:30 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 3, 2026 at 23:29 UTC 1 area · ≤80% Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC 1 area · ≤80% Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC 1 area · ≤80%