Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 1, 2026 at 11:40 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.5 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 70%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
675
ABNT20 KNHC 011140
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, on
Hurricane Rachel, located about a couple of hundred miles south of
Baja California Sur and on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located
well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next
week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 17:38 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 1, 2026 at 11:40 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 1, 2026 at 05:03 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Sep 30, 2026 at 23:09 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Sep 30, 2026 at 11:41 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Sep 30, 2026 at 05:47 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Sep 29, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC
1 area · ≤90%