Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 1, 2026 at 05:03 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 60% → 70%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 70%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
422
ABNT20 KNHC 010503
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
364
ABPZ20 KNHC 010501
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, on
Hurricane Rachel, located within a couple of hundred miles southwest
of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E,
located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next
week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 1, 2026 at 05:03 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤70%
Sep 30, 2026 at 23:09 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Sep 30, 2026 at 11:41 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Sep 30, 2026 at 05:47 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Sep 29, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC
1 area · ≤90%
Sep 29, 2026 at 11:26 UTC
1 area · ≤90%
Sep 29, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
1 area · ≤90%
Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC
1 area · ≤90%
Sep 28, 2026 at 23:34 UTC
1 area · ≤90%
Sep 28, 2026 at 17:36 UTC
1 area · ≤90%