Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.3 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited showers and thunderstorms this morning. Only a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm organization is needed for it to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly east-northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
370
ABNT20 KNHC 291709
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores,
and on Tropical Storm Hanna, located well to the east-northeast of
Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291126
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, near the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico, on Hurricane
Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, and on
Tropical Storm Rachel, located few hundred miles south-southwest of
Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing limited showers and thunderstorms this morning.
Only a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm organization is
needed for it to become a tropical depression during the next day or
two while it moves slowly east-northeastward. Environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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