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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.3 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (1)

Eastern Pacific 1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited showers and thunderstorms this morning. Only a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm organization is needed for it to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly east-northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 370 ABNT20 KNHC 291709 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Hanna, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291126 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, near the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico, on Hurricane Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited showers and thunderstorms this morning. Only a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm organization is needed for it to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly east-northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC — viewing 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 11:26 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 05:20 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 23:34 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 17:36 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 11:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 27, 2026 at 23:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 27, 2026 at 17:26 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Sep 27, 2026 at 11:25 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Sep 27, 2026 at 05:27 UTC 3 areas · ≤90%