Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 25, 2026 at 11:32 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 21 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.9 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%
- Odds raised for 2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Eastern Pacific): 40% → 50%
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 20% 7-day 90%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 0% 7-day 50%
2. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located about 160 miles east-southeast of the
southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located
well to the west-southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251132
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a couple hundred miles offshore of Manzanillo,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or
two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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