Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Sep 23, 2026 at 23:26 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) — 50% 7-day odds
- Odds raised for 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay) (Atlantic): 20% → 70%
- No longer tracked: 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Atlantic)
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) 48h 50% 7-day 50%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and fl
Atlantic
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay) 48h 70% 7-day 70%
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through
Eastern Pacific
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
586
ABNT20 KNHC 232326
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding
are possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
754
ABPZ20 KNHC 232325
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located less than 150 miles offshore of southwestern
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on recently upgraded Tropical
Storm Nolo, located a few hundred miles south of the Big Island of
Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as
it moves generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo are issued under
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header TCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo are issued
under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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