Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Sep 23, 2026 at 11:49 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook: Hurricane Polo — track & advisories →Hurricane Odalys — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 27.5 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (3)
Atlantic 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 40%
1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is about to move off the west coast of Africa. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday. Strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Eastern Pacific 1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast the Big Island of Hawaii, have become better organized. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Heavy rains associated with this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting on Wednesday and continuing through Saturday, possibly resulting in life-threa
Eastern Pacific 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 70%
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.