Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Sep 21, 2026 at 17:42 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 20 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 26.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) (Eastern Pacific): 70% → 80%
- Odds raised for 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Eastern Pacific): 30% → 40%
Development areas (2)
Eastern Pacific
1. East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E) 48h 20% 7-day 80%
1. East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by that time to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
Eastern Pacific
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 48h 0% 7-day 40%
2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211742
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off western Africa by
Wednesday. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves near the Cabo Verde Islands later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211128
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odalys, located located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Polo, located a few
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the
remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred
miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development of
this system by the middle to latter portion of this week, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by that time to the south or
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands as the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.