Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 30% development odds
Issued Oct 21, 2026 at 23:19 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Tropical Storm Josephine — track & advisories →Tropical Storm Vance — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 29 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Subtropical Central Atlantic — 10% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) (Atlantic)
- No longer tracked: 2. Subtropical Central Atlantic (Atlantic)
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 10%
1. Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Western Central Pacific 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212316
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore
of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast.
Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly
north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
725
ABPZ20 KNHC 212319
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Vance, located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll
late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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