Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 28 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) (Atlantic): 40% → 70%
- New area in the Atlantic: 2. Subtropical Central Atlantic — 10% 7-day odds
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 70% 7-day 70%
1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward. 1. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along porti
Atlantic
2. Subtropical Central Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 10%
2. Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Western Central Pacific 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211937
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93
Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better
organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area
located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States
coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical
characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If
these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this
afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S.
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including
hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult
statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices
and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas
Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly
north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Blake/Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211705
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E, located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, a few hundred miles southwest of Johnston Atoll late
this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system
moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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