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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds

Issued Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 28 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.5 by this date.

Development areas (3)

Atlantic 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 70% 7-day 70%

1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward. 1. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along porti

Atlantic 2. Subtropical Central Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 10%

2. Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Pacific 1. Western Central Pacific 48h 0% 7-day 30%

1. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 211937 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93 Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake/Reinhart

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 211705 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 21, 2026 at 19:37 UTC — viewing 3 areas · ≤70% Oct 21, 2026 at 17:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤40% Oct 21, 2026 at 11:44 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 23:33 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 11:39 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 05:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 17:43 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90%