Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 40% development odds
Issued Oct 8, 2026 at 05:14 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.4 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Guatemala (Eastern Pacific): 30% → 40%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 40%
1. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080510
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on upgraded
Hurricane Isaias, located over the southwestern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080514
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Simon, located
more than 100 miles southwest of coast of the Mexican state of
Guerrero.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Simon are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Simon are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 8, 2026 at 05:14 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 7, 2026 at 23:55 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 7, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 7, 2026 at 05:14 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 6, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
3 areas · ≤100%
Oct 6, 2026 at 17:11 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Oct 6, 2026 at 11:33 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%
Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 5, 2026 at 23:23 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 5, 2026 at 17:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 5, 2026 at 11:38 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%