StormTracking
Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

← Previous outlook Next outlook → Latest → Live map

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 25 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (2)

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within a day or so. The disturbance should continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through this week. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico

Eastern Pacific 2. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 30%

2. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 071136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located in the southwestern Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isais are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071137 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Southern Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within a day or so. The disturbance should continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through this week. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional information, including Storm Warnings, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 7, 2026 at 17:21 UTC 1 area · ≤30% Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 7, 2026 at 05:14 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 6, 2026 at 23:19 UTC 3 areas · ≤100% Oct 6, 2026 at 17:11 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Oct 6, 2026 at 11:33 UTC 3 areas · ≤90% Oct 6, 2026 at 05:07 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 23:23 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 17:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 5, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTC 2 areas · ≤90%