Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 100% development odds
Issued Oct 6, 2026 at 23:19 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 25 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.9 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) (Atlantic): 90% → 100%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92) 48h 100% 7-day 100%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. 1. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance th
Eastern Pacific
2. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 20%
2. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine, located in the southwestern Gulf of
America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
522
ABPZ20 KNHC 061711
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests
along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it
moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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