Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.2 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America — 20% 7-day odds
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Southwestern Gulf of America 48h 0% 7-day 20%
1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts over the southwestern Gulf waters. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 10% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
924
ABNT20 KNHC 032346
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
southwestern Gulf of America. Any development of this system
is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts over the southwestern
Gulf waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
655
ABPZ20 KNHC 040516
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located well to the west-northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next
day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to
latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern
to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 4, 2026 at 17:26 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 11:30 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 4, 2026 at 05:16 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 3, 2026 at 23:29 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%