Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.1 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portion of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031717
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
latter portion of next week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 3, 2026 at 17:17 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 11:35 UTC
1 area · ≤80%
Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 11:28 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 2, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 23:05 UTC
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 1, 2026 at 17:38 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 1, 2026 at 11:40 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 1, 2026 at 05:03 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Sep 30, 2026 at 23:09 UTC
1 area · ≤60%