Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 30.1 by this date.
- Odds lowered for 1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay) (Atlantic): 10% → 0%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay) 48h 0% 7-day 0%
1. Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized since yesterday. No further development is expected while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022329
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of former
Tropical Storm Fay located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda have become less organized since yesterday. No further
development is expected while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph to the east of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030520
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located several hundred miles west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located just over a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 3, 2026 at 05:20 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤80%
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Sep 30, 2026 at 23:09 UTC
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Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC
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Sep 30, 2026 at 11:41 UTC
1 area · ≤40%