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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 40% development odds

Issued Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 24 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 29.4 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (1)

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 40%

1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 301731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hanna, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Beven

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 301141 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located over the western East Pacific. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Adams

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Sep 30, 2026 at 17:31 UTC — viewing 1 area · ≤40% Sep 30, 2026 at 11:41 UTC 1 area · ≤40% Sep 30, 2026 at 05:47 UTC 1 area · ≤20% Sep 29, 2026 at 23:05 UTC 1 area · ≤20% Sep 29, 2026 at 17:09 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 11:26 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 05:20 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 29, 2026 at 02:06 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 23:34 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 17:36 UTC 1 area · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 11:16 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Sep 28, 2026 at 05:31 UTC 2 areas · ≤90%